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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to take a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "significant repercussions" in August in case Putin persisted obstructing truce negotiations, Trump finally enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, that was developed by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European input, the former president has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Invasion

This initiative would effectively benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality weaken that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate background, the former president continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, as if handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. But, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the democratic governance that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in place the already split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would require Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been failed to seize in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a essential obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Putin a clear way to Kyiv should he subsequently opt to restart the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a move that would enable renewed hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan places no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate administration as extremists, the proposal asserts: "Every radical ideology and actions must be condemned and banned." As if to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in Russia.

Defense Commitments

Admittedly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has violated similar agreements in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should anyone believe Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. Although the initiative promises a "immediate joint military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from unclear to alarming. The plan would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also prevent member states from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the security presence, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

A separate supplementary accord apparently would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "significant, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But unlike a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's best protection against additional invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not